According to a Reuters poll of medical experts, the third wave of coronavirus infections is expected to strike India by October, and while it will be better controlled than the previous outbreak, the pandemic will remain a public health hazard for at least another year.
A global study of 40 healthcare specialists, doctors, scientists, virologists, epidemiologists, and professors conducted between June 3 and 17 found that a considerable increase in vaccines will likely provide some protection against a new outbreak.
The third wave of coronavirus is to hit India by october 2021
Over 85% of those who made a prediction, or 21 out of 24, indicated the second wave would arrive by October, including three who predicted it in August and 12 in September. Between November and February, the remaining three said.
However, more than 70% of experts (24 of 34) thought any new outbreak would be better controlled than the present one, which has been significantly more destructive - with shortages of vaccines, medicines, oxygen, and hospital beds - than the smaller first outbreak last year.
"It will be better regulated," Dr Randeep Guleria, director of the All India Institute Of Medical Sciences, said. "Cases would be a lot less because more vaccinations will have been rolled out and there will be some degree of natural protection from the second-wave" (AIIMS).
India has only fully vaccinated about 5% of its projected 950 million eligible population, leaving many millions at risk of infection and death.
While the majority of healthcare experts projected a big increase in vaccinations this year, they warned against removing limitations too soon, as several states have done.
When asked if children and individuals under the age of 18 would be the most vulnerable in the event of a third wave, over two-thirds of the experts (26 of 40) replied yes.
"The reason is that they are a completely unvaccinated group because there is now no vaccine available for them," said Dr. Pradeep Banandur, head of the National Institute of Mental Health and Neurosciences' epidemiology department (NIMHANS).
Experts worry that the situation might deteriorate quickly. "There is nothing you can do at the last minute if children get sick in huge numbers and we are not prepared," said Dr. Devi Shetty, a cardiologist at Narayana Health and a pandemic response strategy advisor to the Karnataka state government.
However, 14 experts said that children were not in danger. A top health ministry official stated earlier this week that children are sensitive and prone to diseases, but that investigation has revealed a less severe health impact.
While 25 of 38 experts indicated future coronavirus variations would not render existing vaccinations useless, 30 of 41 experts said the coronavirus would remain a public health danger in India for at least a year in response to a separate question.
Eleven experts predicted the threat would last less than a year, 15 for less than two years, 13 for more than two years, and two said the problem will never get vanished.
"COVID-19 is a solvable challenge, as obtaining a solvable vaccine was apparently simple. India would most certainly gain herd immunity in two years as a result of the vaccination and disease exposure "Robert Gallo, director of the University of Maryland's Institute of Human Virology and international scientific advisor to the Global Virus Network, said this.
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